Retailers stocked up for upcoming holiday season

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Data from NRF projects that imports at major U.S. ports have peaked as businesses built up inventory ahead of new tariffs.

Retailers are likely well-stocked for the coming holidays as this year’s peak shipping season is coming to an end, National Retail Federation Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said in a statement Friday.

The Global Port Tracker report released Friday by NRF and Hackett Associates found a 13.2% year-over-year increase in 20-foot containers or their equivalent at major U.S. ports in June. That’s lower than the industry group’s previous projection of nearly 19% growth in June.

Additionally, July imports are now expected to be down 7.6% year over year, though the Global Port Tracker previously predicted July imports would “hit a new all-time record,” per a press release last month.

Ports have not yet reported August numbers, but the industry group projects 20-foot equivalent units at major U.S. ports in August will decrease 4.2% year over year.

“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” Gold noted. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”

Temporary 10% Section 122 global tariffs from February expired on July 23, and a new round of Section 301 tariffs took effect the next day, per NRF.

Tariff policies in the U.S. over the past year have altered some of the buying timelines for retailers. A Deloitte study last year found that respondents said they placed over half of holiday orders by the end of May, which was about two months earlier compared to Deloitte’s 2024 survey.

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